A growing library of the most powerful thinking frameworks — explained visually, with real examples and practical steps.
Instead of asking how to succeed, ask what would guarantee failure — then avoid it.
Break any problem down to its fundamental truths, then build your reasoning up from there.
Consider not just the immediate consequences of a decision, but the consequences of those consequences.
Know what you know, know what you don't know, and stay honest about the boundary.
Every model of reality is a simplification. Don't confuse your map with the actual terrain.
Before starting, imagine the project has already failed. Then figure out why.
The simplest explanation that fits the evidence is usually the correct one.
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance, incompetence, or neglect.
Think in likelihoods, not certainties. Assign probabilities to outcomes instead of assuming binary results.
Every system has outputs that feed back into inputs — reinforcing or balancing the system's behaviour over time.
Build a buffer between what you expect and what you plan for. The world will surprise you.
The true cost of anything is whatever you give up to get it — including the next best alternative.
Some things don't just survive shocks — they get stronger from them. Position yourself to benefit from disorder.
Test ideas by running them in your imagination rather than in the real world — cheaper, faster, and sometimes just as revealing.
Separate what's urgent from what's important. Most people spend their lives on the wrong quadrant.
Start with your best guess, then update it proportionally as new evidence arrives.